The HCR-20 as a measure of reliable and clinically significant change in violence risk among secure psychiatric inpatients

Objective Periodic structured violence risk assessment is the principle method underlying treatment planning for mentally disordered offenders but little is known about how risk changes over time. We aimed to determine whether hospitalised patients underwent reliable clinical change in assessed risk. Method We used a pseudo-prospective longitudinal study design. Demographic, clinical and risk assessment data of adult inpatients (N=480) who had been routinely assessed with the HCR-20 on two to four occasions over a mean period of 17 months (SD=2) were collated. Linear mixed models regression was conducted to determine change over time on total, subscale, and individual item scores, and relative change between clinical and demographic groups. The Reliable Change Index was calculated to examine whether change was greater than that expected by measurement error; clinically significant change was defined as the extent to which HCR-20 scores reduced below previously reported scores for patients not requiring hospitalisation. Results HCR-20 total score (Estimate −0.42, 95% CI=−0.84, −0.01, p<.05; d=.20) and clinical score (Estimate=−0.42, 95% CI=−0.64, −0.20, p<.001; d=.36) reduced over assessments. Significant differences in change were evident between clinically and demographically defined groups. A maximum of 3% of individuals showed clinically significant reliable reductions in HCR-20 total scores. The scores of patients whose overall level of risk was judged to have decreased did not reduce between assessments. Conclusion Violence risk changes very little over the course of treatment although there is some variation between groups. Most change cannot be demonstrated to be reliable or clinically significant. Important clinical management decisions should not depend solely on evidence from changes in HCR-20 risk assessment

Properties of Information Carrying Waves in Cosmology

Recently we studied the effects of information carrying waves propagating through isotropic cosmologies. By information carrying we mean that the waves have an arbitrary dependence on a function. We found that the waves introduce shear and anisotropic stress into the universe. We then constructed explicit examples of pure gravity wave perturbations for which the presence of this anisotropic stress is essential and the null hypersurfaces playing the role of the histories of the wave-fronts in the background space-time are shear-free. Motivated by this result we now prove that these two properties are true for all information carrying waves in isotropic cosmologies.Comment: 15 pages, Latex File, accepted for publication in Physical Review

Urban flooding in Britain:An approach to comparing ancient and contemporary flood exposure

Using modified UK Environment Agency Flood Estimation Handbook techniques, inundation extent and likely flood hydrographs for 0.1% probability annual return periods are compared for twelve Roman town sites in the UK, both at the present day and for simulated Roman catchment conditions. Eight of the study sites appear to have suffered minimal urban flood liability as occupied in the Roman period. The exceptions were Canterbury, York, Leicester, and Chichester. It is reasonable to expect flood characteristics to have changed subsequently in response to transformations in catchment land use, urban expansion, wetland reclamation, and floodway engineering. However, modelling results suggest limited differences in flood flows attributable to such factors. Greater present-day urban damage liability essentially results from floodplain urban extension. There are also contrasts between sites: those Roman towns lying on floodplains themselves, rather than on slightly elevated terraces (Canterbury, Chichester), are dominated by groundwater regimes with attenuated flood peaks. Taken together, these results suggest some Roman awareness of the actualities of urban flood liability at the time. Site sensitivity has not been carried forward as urban expansion has flourished, especially from the nineteenth century with suburban and industrial expansion. The straightforward mapping approach here suggested should in future take account of multiple century-scale hydroclimatic changes, morphological river channel and floodplain transformations over similar time periods, and on-going improvements to inundation modelling

How short should short-term risk assessment be? Determining the optimum interval for START reassessment in a secure mental health service

The Short-Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability (START) guides assessment of potential adverse outcomes. Assessment is recommended every 3 months but there is no evidence for this interval. We aimed to inform whether earlier reassessment was warranted. We collated START assessments for N = 217 adults in a secure mental health hospital, and subsequent aggressive, self-harm, self-neglect and victimization incidents. We used receiver operating characteristic analysis to assess predictive validity; survival function analysis to examine differences between low-, medium-, and high-risk groups; and hazard function analysis to determine the optimum interval for reassessment. The START predicted aggression and self-harm at 1, 2 and 3 months. At-risk individuals engaged in adverse outcomes earlier than low-risk patients. About half warranted reassessment before 3 months due to engagement in risk behaviour before that point despite a low-risk rating, or because of non-engagement by that point despite an elevated risk rating. Risk assessment should occur at appropriate intervals so that management strategies can be individually tailored. Assessment at 3-month intervals is supported by the evidence. START assessments should be revisited earlier if risk behaviours are not prevented; teams should constantly re-evaluate the need for restrictive practices

Shear-Free Gravitational Waves in an Anisotropic Universe

We study gravitational waves propagating through an anisotropic Bianchi I dust-filled universe (containing the Einstein-de-Sitter universe as a special case). The waves are modeled as small perturbations of this background cosmological model and we choose a family of null hypersurfaces in this space-time to act as the histories of the wavefronts of the radiation. We find that the perturbations we generate can describe pure gravitational radiation if and only if the null hypersurfaces are shear-free. We calculate the gauge-invariant small perturbations explicitly in this case. How these differ from the corresponding perturbations when the background space-time is isotropic is clearly exhibited.Comment: 32 pages, accepted for publication in Physical Review

Metric Perturbation Approach to Gravitational Waves in Isotropic Cosmologies

Gravitational waves in isotropic cosmologies were recently studied using the gauge-invariant approach of Ellis-Bruni. We now construct the linearised metric perturbations of the background Robertson-Walker space-time which reproduce the results obtained in that study. The analysis carried out here also facilitates an easy comparison with Bardeen.Comment: 29 pages, Latex file, accepted for publication in Physical Review

Computational approaches for sub-meter ocean color remote sensing

Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Mechanical and Oceanographic Engineering at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution February 2021.The satellite ocean color remote sensing paradigm developed by government space agencies enables the assessment of ocean color products on global scales at kilometer resolutions. A similar paradigm has not yet been developed for regional scales at sub-meter resolutions, but it is essential for specific ocean color applications (e.g., mapping algal biomass in the marginal ice zone). While many aspects of the satellite ocean color remote sensing paradigm are applicable to sub-meter scales, steps within the paradigm must be adapted to the optical character of the ocean at these scales and the opto-electronics of the available sensing instruments. This dissertation adapts the three steps of the satellite ocean color remote sensing paradigm that benefit the most from reassessment at sub-meter scales, namely the correction for surface-reflected light, the design and selection of the opto-electronics and the post-processing of over-sampled regions. First, I identify which surface-reflected light removal algorithm and view angle combination are optimal at sub-meter scales, using data collected during a field deployment to the Martha’s Vineyard Coastal Observatory. I find that of the three most widely used glint correction algorithms, a spectral optimization based approach applied to measurements with a 40∘ view angle best recovers the remotesensing reflectance and chlorophyll concentration despite centimeter scale variability in the surface-reflected light. Second, I develop a simulation framework to assess the impact of higher optical and electronics noise on ocean color product retrieval from unique ocean color scenarios. I demonstrate the framework’s power as a design tool by identifying hardware limitations, and developing potential solutions, for estimating algal biomass from high dynamic range sensing in the marginal ice zone. Third, I investigate a spectral super-resolution technique for application to spatially over-sampled oceanic regions. I determine that this technique more accurately represents spectral frequencies beyond the Nyquist and that it can be trained to be invariant to noise sources characteristic of ocean color remote sensing on images with similar statistics as the training dataset. Overall, the developed and critically assessed sub-meter ocean color remote sensing paradigm enables researchers to collect high fidelity sub-meter data from imaging spectrometers in unique ocean color scenarios.Ryan O’Shea was supported by the Department of Defense (DoD) through the National Defense Science & Engineering Graduate Fellowship (NDSEG) Program. This research was funded by Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution’s Edwin W. Hiam Ocean Science and Technology Award Fund, its Ocean Venture Funds, its Academic Programs Office, and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration via grant number CCE NNX17AI72G to Dr. Samuel Laney. The raw data for Figures 3-3 and 3-4 were provided through Australian Antarctic Science grants 2678 and 4390

On the Discovery of Monocular Rivalry by Tscherning in 1898:Translation and Review

Monocular rivalry was named by Breese in 1899. He made prolonged observation of superimposed orthogonal gratings; they fluctuated in clarity with either one or the other grating occasionally being visible alone. A year earlier, Tscherning observed similar fluctuations with a grid of vertical and horizontal lines and with other stimuli; we draw attention to his prior account. Monocular rivalry has since been shown to occur with a wide variety of superimposed patterns with several independent rediscoveries of it. We also argue that Helmholtz described some phenomenon other than monocular rivalry in 1867

Gravitational Wave Propagation in Isotropic Cosmologies

We study the propagation of gravitational waves carrying arbitrary information through isotropic cosmologies. The waves are modelled as small perturbations of the background Robertson-Walker geometry. The perfect fluid matter distribution of the isotropic background is, in general, modified by small anisotropic stresses. For pure gravity waves, in which the perturbed Weyl tensor is radiative (i.e. type N in the Petrov classification), we construct explicit examples for which the presence of the anisotropic stress is shown to be essential and the histories of the wave-fronts in the background Robertson-Walker geometry are shear-free null hypersurfaces. The examples derived in this case are analogous to the Bateman waves of electromagnetic theory.Comment: 27 pages, accepted for publication in Phys.Rev.

Structure and Turbulence in Simulated Galaxy Clusters and the Implications for the Formation of Radio Halos

We track the histories of massive clusters of galaxies formed within a cosmological hydrodynamic simulation. Specifically, we track the time evolution of the energy in random bulk motions of the intracluster medium and X-ray measures of cluster structure and their relationship to cluster mergers. We aim to assess the viability of the turbulent re-acceleration model for the generation of giant radio halos by comparing the level of turbulent kinetic energy in simulated clusters with the observed properties of radio halo clusters, giving particular attention to the association of radio halos to clusters with disturbedX-ray structures. The evolution of X-ray cluster structure and turbulence kinetic energy, k, in simulations can then inform us about the expected lifetime of radio halos and the fraction of clusters as a function of redshift expected to host them. We find strong statistical correlation of disturbed structure measures and the presence of enhancements in k. Specifically, quantitatively "disturbed", radio halo-like X-ray morphology in our sample indicates a 92% chance of the cluster in question having k elevated to more than twice its minimum value over the cluster's life. The typical lifetime of episodes of elevated turbulence is on the order of 1 Gyr, though these periods can last 5 Gyrs or more. This variation reflects the wide range of cluster histories; while some clusters undergo complex and repeated mergers spending a majority of their time in elevated k states, other clusters are relaxed over nearly their entire history. We do not find a bimodal relationship between cluster X-ray luminosity and the total energy in turbulence that might account directly for a bimodal L_X-P_{1.4 GHz} relation. However, our result may be consistent with the observed bimodality, as here we are not including a full treatment of cosmic rays sources and magnetic fields.Comment: 15 pages, 12 figures, MNRAS Submitte